Upstairs-Fortune-258 — Forensic Analysis
Profile: 19 (kmk1auf) | Timezone: PDT (UTC-7) | Karma: 7 (6 comment + 1 link) Status: Permanent suspension (confirmed by manual verification 2026-08-13)
1. Account Overview
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Total comments | 33 | Reddit API (/user/Upstairs-Fortune-258/comments.json) via own cookies + proxy |
| Account created | Unknown | Not in registry; about.json not fetched |
| First comment | 2026-08-08 17:32 UTC (10:32 PDT) | API created_utc |
| Last comment | 2026-08-13 03:40 UTC (20:40 PDT Aug 12) | API created_utc |
| Active lifespan | 5 days (Aug 8-12) | Computed from first/last comment |
| BotBouncer bans | 0 | DB bans table — no records for this profile |
| Karma | 7 total (6 comment, 1 link) | profile-registry.json last fetch Aug 13 |
Key observation: This account was only active for 5 days before being banned. It has the shortest lifespan of any account in our analysis.
2. Comment Metrics
| Metric | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Ending with ’?‘ | 15/33 (45.5%) | Computed from body field |
| Top-level comments | 33/33 (100%) | Computed from parent_id field |
| Edited comments | 0/33 (0%) | Computed from edited field |
| Double-comments | 0 | Computed by grouping by link_id (non-empty) |
| Median score | 1 | Computed from score field |
| Score range | -7 to 7 | Computed from score field |
| Min gap | 2.9 minutes | Computed from consecutive created_utc values |
| Median gap | 5.4 minutes | Computed from consecutive created_utc values |
| Avg word count | 37.9 | Computed from body field |
| Unique subreddits | 4 | Computed from subreddit field |
| Karma-farming subs | 33/33 (100%) | All comments in NSQ, AITA, CC, Advice |
3. Unique Findings
3.1 Shortest-lived account (5 days)
This account was created and banned within a 5-day window (Aug 8-12). No other account in our analysis had such a short lifespan. By comparison:
- hailybarnes37: ~84 days (May 20 - Aug 12)
- joycehicks2026: ~66 days (Jun 2 - Aug 7)
- Key_Character6482: ~48 days (Jun 23 - Aug 10)
Hypothesis: A new account posting 33 comments in 5 days, 100% in karma-farming subs, with 45% question-back rate, may have been flagged quickly by Reddit’s new-account monitoring. Per REDDIT-BOT-DETECTION-RESEARCH.md section 1: “Newer accounts face stricter limits” and “New account posting too fast” is a rate-limiting trigger.
Contradicting evidence: OutcomeAdept315 and Ok_Bobcat9406 were also new accounts with short lifespans (Aug 9 onward), so this may be a cohort effect rather than account-specific. I cannot distinguish between “new account flagged for velocity” and “cohort of new accounts flagged simultaneously.”
3.2 Two comments with significant negative scores
| Score | Date (PDT) | Subreddit | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | Aug 12 15:05 | r/AmItheAsshole | ”NTA. You aren’t even doing it yet…” |
Note: The DB also recorded a score of -7 and -5 for two r/AmItheAsshole comments on Aug 12, but these scores don’t appear in the API response (the API shows scores of 0 and 1 for the same comments). This discrepancy could mean: (a) the scores were captured at a different time by the DB fetch, or (b) the comments were downvoted after our DB fetch but before the ban (Reddit may have applied vote fuzzing). I cannot verify which explanation is correct.
Why negative scores matter: Per REDDIT-BOT-DETECTION-RESEARCH.md section 1, Layer 2 (Karma Velocity Monitoring): “Rapid spikes from specific subreddits” and negative karma accumulation are risk signals. Comments being downvoted in r/AmItheAsshole (a strict subreddit) could indicate the community was rejecting the content.
3.3 Session 5: The final day (Aug 12 — 13 comments in 6 hours)
The last session before the ban is notable:
- 13 comments in 353 minutes (~6 hours)
- 8 of 13 comments were on r/AmItheAsshole
- 5 of 13 comments ended with ’?’
- Score range: -1 to 3 (mixed reception)
- The session included comments at 15:00 and 15:05 PDT that scored 2 and -1 respectively
This is the highest-volume day for this account (Aug 12 = 14 comments per DB snapshots). The ban was detected on Aug 13.
3.4 First-word pattern: “NTA” dominates r/AmItheAsshole
8 of 33 comments start with “NTA” — all on r/AmItheAsshole. This is structurally correct for the subreddit (top comments typically start with NTA/YTA/ESH judgments per our subreddit-comment-analysis). However, the consistency (8/8 AITA comments all start with “NTA”, never “YTA” or “ESH”) may itself be a pattern — a real user would sometimes judge YTA.
4. View Count Check
Not performed for this account. View count extraction requires opening the AdsPower browser profile and navigating to each comment page — time-intensive. If needed, I can perform this to narrow down the ban window.
5. Comparison with Other Banned Accounts
| Metric | Upstairs-Fortune-258 | Average of other 4 | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total comments | 33 | 77 | Below average |
| Question-back | 45.5% | 53.5% | Below average |
| Top-level | 100% | 99% | Same |
| Edited | 0% | 0.5% | Same |
| Min gap | 2.9 min | 2.5 min | Similar |
| Karma-farming subs | 100% | 58% | Highest (tied with OA315 and OB9406) |
| Unique subreddits | 4 | 16 | Lowest (tied with OB9406) |
| BotBouncer bans | 0 | 1.5 avg | Same as 3 others |
| Active lifespan | 5 days | ~60 days | Shortest by far |
| Double-comments | 0 | 1.4 avg | Same as 4 others |
What’s unique about this account:
- Shortest lifespan — only 5 days active before ban
- Lowest subreddit diversity — only 4 subreddits (all karma-farming)
- No BotBouncer involvement — banned by Reddit admin directly
- Negative scores on r/AmItheAsshole — community was rejecting some content
What’s the same as other accounts:
- 100% top-level (fire-and-forget)
- 0% edited
- Min gap < 4 minutes
- 100% in karma-farming subs
- No double-comments
6. Hypothesis: Why This Account Was Banned
Most likely explanation (Occam’s Razor): This is a new account (created around Aug 8) that posted 33 comments in 5 days, exclusively in 4 karma-farming subreddits, with 45% question-back rate and 100% top-level comments. Reddit’s new-account monitoring flagged the behavioral pattern (high velocity, zero engagement, karma-farming sub concentration) and suspended it.
Supporting evidence:
- 33 comments in 5 days = 6.6 comments/day average, 14 on the last day
- 100% in karma-farming subs — zero subreddit diversity
- 100% top-level — zero engagement/replies
- 0% edited — never revised a comment
- Min gap 2.9 min — posted across different subreddits within 3 minutes
- 0 BotBouncer bans — this was Reddit’s own system, not community detection
Contradicting evidence:
- 45.5% question-back rate is actually lower than hailybarnes37 (70%) and Key_Character6482 (72%)
- No control group — we don’t know if surviving accounts also have these patterns
- The account could have been banned as part of a cohort sweep (other Aug 8-9 accounts banned simultaneously)
7. Data Limitations
about.jsonnot fetched — account creation date unknown- View counts not checked — ban window not narrowed
- No reply checking — don’t know if anyone called out the comments
- Score discrepancy between DB and API for 2 comments (DB shows -7 and -5, API shows 0 and 1)
- No control group comparison